NEW FOX POLL CONFIRMS GOP STRENGTH IN KEY STATES – AT 11:10 A.M. ET:  The election four weeks from today will be fought state by state, district by district.  The GOP is poised to do very well in key states, if the current trends continue, as measured by Fox:

Deep resistance to Obama's agenda has put a West Virginia Senate seat once thought to be safe territory for Democrats in serious jeopardy.

A new Fox News battleground state poll on the race for the seat held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd for 51 years shows Republican businessman John Raese with a 5-point lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin among likely voters -- 48 percent to 43 percent.

And...

Republican Sharron Angle seems to be solidifying her support in her bid to unseat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada.

In the latest Fox News battleground state poll of likely voters, Angle drew 49 percent to Reid’s 46 percent. As voters make up their mind with four weeks to go until Election Day, Angle seems to have the edge.

And...

Missouri voters see a strong connection between President Obama and Democratic Senate nominee Robin Carnahan, and that’s not helping Carnahan.

A new Fox News battleground state poll in Missouri shows Carnahan trailing Republican candidate Roy Blunt by 8 points among likely voters. Blunt, a seven-term congressman from the central part of the state, won the support of 50 percent compared to 42 percent for Carnahan, the second-term secretary of state.

And...

Republicans are still gaining ground in bellwether Ohio, a bad sign for Democrats trying to assess their party’s chances in the heartland this year.

Republican Senate candidate Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 16 points in the latest Fox News battleground state poll -- Portman’s widest lead yet.

Portman, the former Cincinnati-area congressman and Bush administration budget boss, got 53 percent of the likely voters surveyed, compared to 37 percent for Fisher.

Republican gubernatorial challenger John Kasich also saw his numbers rise against Democratic incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland. Kasich was the choice of 49 percent of respondents compared to 43 percent for Strickland. The 6-point lead is the largest in the four weeks of Fox battleground polling on the race.

Only in Connecticut, among the key states polled, is the Democrat, Richard Blumenthal, clearly ahead of the Republican, Linda McMahon, for the Senate seat being vacated by Chris Dodd.  Blumenthal is ten points ahead. 

COMMENT:  Overall, that's good news.  I'm particularly pleased to see the lead being built by Sharron Angle in her face against Harry Reid in Nevada.  Angle is a flawed candidate, and it will still be a struggle.  But she may just pull it out.

October 5, 2010